By Aryan Dwivedi

New Delhi [India], December 31 (ANI): The gains of the 2024 Lok Sabha election now appear to be a distant dream for Congress after they failed to capitalise on Maharashtra and Haryana Assembly elections in the latter part of that year, and witnessed a complete collapse in Delhi and Bihar Assembly elections in 2025.

The indomitable Bharatiya Janata Party outmanoeuvred Congress in all aspects, serving them humiliating defeats in Delhi and Bihar, prompting experts to call out the party's leadership to take up the responsibility and bring 'serious people' and raise 'serious issues.'

Repeated electoral disappointments also exposed the strategic and ideological crisis and gave rise to voices of dissent within the party.

Yogesh Kamdar, Member of the Advisory Board of Management and former Course Head (Journalism and Mass Communication) at Xavier Institute of Communication, expressed concern, 'It's a sad situation. It's the oldest party with the tremendous goodwill of the people. It has done fabulously in more than 100 years of its existence. And suddenly it is a non-entity as far as people's opinion is concerned, which is their own fault.'

Devendra Pai, Assistant Professor of Political Science at Delhi University, reasoned that the party's failures stem from its inability to adapt, a lack of 'charismatic' leadership, and organisational weakness.

Delhi Assembly Election

Congress entered the Delhi Assembly elections on the back of defeat in the Haryana and Maharashtra elections. However, there was still some glimmer of hope from the 2024 Lok Sabha election results, in which the party won 99 seats, nearly doubling its seats compared with 52 in 2019, officially becoming the opposition party after a decade of failure. The Party had also achieved coalition victories in Jammu and Kashmir and Jharkhand.

No one had expected Congress to win the Delhi elections, as the contest was between the ruling Aam Aadmi Party and the opposition BJP. Still, people expected an improved performance with the party fielding former Delhi CM Sheila Dikshit's son, Sandeep Dikshit.

However, it was another disaster: the party completed a perfect hattrick of failing to open its account, but made marginal gains of 2 per cent in the vote share compared with 2020.

BJP secured a comfortable majority, winning 48 seats to AAP's 22 in the 70-member assembly, again proving that the 2024 Lok Sabha election was just a blip, a result of 'complacency in mid-level leadership' as described by Devendra Pai.

'It (2024 Lok Sabha Election) was not a victory of Congress but a defeat of the BJP. There was some complacency in mid-level leadership. People felt that their voices were not being heard at the top level. They suffered in the election. However, they immediately did a course correction, starting from Haryana, Maharashtra, Delhi, and then Bihar,' Devendra Pai, Assistant Professor at Delhi University, said.

Additionally, Yogesh Kamdar highlighted a recurring pattern of anti-incumbency voters turning to any party 'but Congress,' emphasising the severe lack of leadership and strategic approach to the elections.

'This is precisely what is happening all over. People may be unhappy with the ruling party, but the alternative that they choose is not Congress. They may choose the BJP or somebody else, like in Punjab, it goes to somebody else but Congress. Now the 'but Congress' part is a real serious threat to their existence,' he said.

'There lies the trouble. The perception in the mind of the ordinary voter about the party is that it's a bunch of useless people. And I do not want to waste my vote on that. So, that is what has resulted in their terrible performance,' he added.

Devendra Pai added that Congress did not come across as a 'viable alternative' in Delhi, unable to show its capability or willingness to offer an alternative governance.

Bihar Assembly Election

Bihar was the ultimate testing ground for Lok Sabha LoP Rahul Gandhi's politics of 'Jitni abadi utna haq'. The state known for its-cased based politics, where every analyst comes up with their own caste equation and alignments, had every element to push the party's bid to increase reservations and swing in the voters, but the BJP, like always, was two steps ahead of them.

'Congress went for it (demand of caste census) months ahead (of the Bihar election), which gave the BJP time to respond. They responded to it on the policy level and on the ground. They agreed to do the caste census, and the issue was over.' Devendra Pai said.

Following the announcement of the Caste Census, for which Rahul Gandhi patted his back, Congress tried to utilise the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls in Bihar with 'vote theft' allegations. The Lok Sabha Leader of Opposition launched a nationwide campaign against the Election Commission of India, holding multiple press conferences, claiming to 'expose the rigging' of the Maharashtra and Haryana Assembly elections.

Rahul Gandhi also alleged that the SIR in Bihar was the BJP's another tactic to delete the votes of the marginalised community, in an attempt to consolidate his voter base.

However, Yogesh Kamdar termed it as a 'flippant issue' with Congress having nothing to support their claims.

'They are taking up flippant issues, blowing them up, making them into what you call as if it's a national calamity, without any evidence. Nothing to support their claim, nothing to support their allegations. Only press conferences and statements,' he said.

'It is like a crying wolf. Every day you will say that a wolf has come, and when the wolf really comes, no one will stand up. This is what has happened,' he added.

Meanwhile, Devendra Pai believed that Rahul Gandhi lacked the 'gravitas' to make the 'vote theft' allegations stick.

'The leadership of Rahul Gandhi and the lack of it is making this look like an artificial construct. If Modi ji had been in opposition and he spoke on the same issue, then people might have believed him more. Here, people don't trust him. He is not a serious politician,' he said.

Devendra Pai also added that the whole concept of 'vote theft' with regard to SIR does not appeal to the people, as they do want 'illegal immigrants' to be removed who are 'trying to change the demography.'

The Delhi University Professor further cited that the same concerns are also being raised in the US.

The outcome of the Congress's 'vote theft' driven campaign in Bihar was clearly visible as the party registered a strike rate of less than 10 per cent, winning six seats out of the more than 60 seats it contested for Mahagathbandhan, just one more seat than Asaduddin Owaisi's AIMIM.

On the other hand, the NDA alliance, largely comprising BJP and Chief Minister Nitish Kumar's JD (U), on the back of the Mukhaymantri Mahila Rojgar Yojana, a robust organisational structure, and grassroot connections, secured a two-thirds majority. The NDA won 202 of the 243 assembly seats. The Mahagathbandhan secured 35 seats, with the RJD leading with 25.

Shashi Tharoor and Karnataka CM tussle

In 2025, Congress's ideological and organisational shortcomings were also put on display, as its senior leaders raised differing voices, revealing internal conflicts within the party.

The cracks appeared when the Central Government selected Congress MP Shashi Tharoor to lead an all-party delegation to the US and South American countries to present India's stance on Operation Sindoor, a military exercise conducted post Pahalgam terror attack in April of this year to neutralise Pakistan's terror infrastructure.

Congress had not suggested Tharoor's name to be included in the delegations and felt that the BJP 'played game' with them.

Later, Tharoor heaved praise for PM Modi over his handling of the Operation Sindoor, which drew an indirect rebuke from Congress President Mallikarjun Kharge that while the party believes in 'nation first,' some leaders consider it 'Modi first, country later.'

Weighing in on the issue, Yogesh Kamdar said Tharoor's disagreement with the party doesn't make him a 'BJP agent or RSS wala' and emphasised that the Congress needs to give its leaders more freedom.

Both Congress and Tharoor later downplayed the rift, with the party showing no signs of taking action against a prominent face in Kerala, and Tharoor unwilling to make an ideological swing to the BJP.

In Karnataka, tensions also surfaced with the completion of 2.5 years of Karnataka Chief Minister Siddaramaiah's five-year term, with Deputy CM DK Shivakumar reminding him of the reported pact of power exchange. However, Siddaramaiah remained adamant about serving the full term, which brought Karnataka governance to a standstill, with leaders running to Delhi to resolve the conflict.

Devendra Pai credited the top leadership for the tussle, highlighting the organisational weakness for a repetition of Rajasthan.

'The power tussle in Karnataka is continuing because of the absence of proper leadership at the top. The same thing also happened in Rajasthan, It was Sachin Pilot vs Ashok Gehlot, and the Congress could not take a proper call. And eventually they lost Rajasthan,' he said.

'A good thing is that the BJP has not given a chance to their leadership to have a power tussle in the state. If in Maharashtra, the BJP thinks that our leader is Devendra Fadnavis, then the Centre comes behind his leader rather than promoting someone to balance the power,' he added.

Even though Siddaramaiah and DK Shivakumar have tried to resolve the conflict over dinner talks but no definite agreement has been reached yet. As neither leader is willing to abandon their pursuit of power, we can expect this struggle to extend well into 2026.

What's ahead in 2026

2026 is an important years in terms of elections with Assam, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, and Puducherry going to polls in April-May, but for a turnaround in performance, it is evidently clear that Congress need serious introspection of its strategy.

According to Devendra Pai, Congress first need to resolve its 'ideological crisis' and find a way to counter the BJP's dominance over narrative building. 'BJP is clear about its ideology. They stand for Hindutva or patriotism, and the leaders who come in the BJP also follow this. This is non-compromised. So Congress has to define itself rather than living in past glory,' he said.

'BJP is not allowing Congress to set the agenda. Congress has lost in terms of leadership, organisational strength, narrative setting, and to maintain their image in the media,' he added.

Devendra Pai also hinted that Congress can capitalise on the BJP's anti-incumbency if it can overhaul the leadership.

'I think it is high time that you have a natural leader. When there is an organic leader who comes from the grassroot, then things will change. Leadership change will bring an organisational change. It will become robust. For the BJP, there will be anti-incumbency of 10 years in some states and in the centre, there will be a 15-year anti-incumbency in the Lok Sabha,'

Devendra Pai added that to bring such change and contest against the BJP, Congress leadership 'will have to become full-time politicians. Part-time politicians cannot do that.'

Yogesh Kamdar also echoed these sentiments, advising the party to pursue the 'optimum' strategy for its survival.

'Congress has many intelligent people who can steer it out of the problem, who can give it a direction. For survival, a party has to do the optimum that will increase the chance of survival and its acceptability, which they have failed to do,' he said.

Congress President Mallikarjun Kharge at the recent Congress Working Committee (CWC) vowed to continue the party's fight against the ruling party's attempts to curb the freedom of Constitutional institutions. The party also decided to oppose the recently enacted VB-G RAM-G Act, which seeks to replace MGNREGA.

Kharge discussed the appointments of district presidents as part of the party's attempt to strengthen the organisation, but he made no acknowledgement of leadership failures and offered no strategy for the upcoming elections. However, there were some important words there, such as 'organisation, unity, and democracy.' (ANI)