Approximately 600 large ocean-going vessels remain stranded inside the Gulf, most are unwilling to move without clearer assurances, a maritime analyst has said.

by Xinhua writers Gao Wencheng, Zhao Jiasong

LONDON, April 11 (Xinhua) -- Shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz has not materially improved following the ceasefire announced by the United States and Iran, as Iran continues to maintain firm control over the strategic waterway, a maritime analyst has said.

In an interview with Xinhua, Richard Meade, a London-based maritime analyst and editor-in-chief of Lloyd's List, said transit arrangements are likely to become a central issue in upcoming negotiations between the two countries.

According to shipping data and his observations, vessel movements through the strait remain limited. "Essentially, the ceasefire hasn't materially changed much. We haven't seen many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz since the ceasefire was announced. If anything, the volumes have gone down," Meade said.

He noted that the current traffic situation reflects widespread caution across the shipping industry, with operators adopting a wait-and-see approach as they seek clarity on future transit conditions.

Meade stressed that Iran remains in effective control of the strait, requiring all vessels to report to its Islamic Revolution Guard Corps, meaning that no ships can pass without its consent.

He added that Tehran is demanding detailed disclosures on ownership, insurance and trading history in order to screen out vessels linked to the United States or Israel.

Meade revealed that approximately 600 large ocean-going vessels remain stranded inside the Gulf. Based on his direct communication with shipowners, most are unwilling to move without clearer assurances.

As he put it, "they are not moving their ships until they get some clarification over what happens next," with the industry waiting to see whether the ceasefire can evolve into a lasting security arrangement that ensures safe passage.

Meade underscored the strategic significance of the strait, describing its status as likely to be "the key issue" in U.S.-Iran negotiations.

He noted that the waterway accounts for roughly 20 percent of global energy exports and is critical to all economies. While U.S. President Donald Trump has repeatedly argued that the United States does not rely heavily on the strait for oil, Meade pointed out that the impact goes far beyond energy, as large volumes of global commodities transit the route, influencing everything from geopolitics to food prices.

On the controversial issue of potential transit fees, Meade said there is no legal precedent for turning such straits into toll routes and warned that the matter could become a major point of contention.

He also drew attention to recent signals from Washington, noting that statements from the White House press secretary suggested that Trump has not ruled out the possibility of some form of toll arrangement between the United States and Iran following a ceasefire.

"While there is no precedent legally speaking, we are living in interesting times, and we will have to wait and see what happens next," he added.

Regarding the timeline for restoring normal operations, Meade cautioned that recovery will be gradual and that a two-week ceasefire is "in no way long enough" to resolve the situation. He said the industry hopes for an extended period without direct threats to shipping.

Even under ideal conditions, he explained, it would take weeks to clear the current backlog and months for the broader system to normalize. Oil tankers are likely to be prioritized, followed by the return of empty tankers and the restart of refineries, while the repositioning of container ships, bulk carriers and misplaced empty containers could take considerably longer.

Warning of operational risks during the recovery process, Meade said that any attempt to move vessels too quickly could lead to collisions, navigational errors and other serious problems, particularly given GPS interference and the narrowness of the waterway.

The industry is watching for "first movers" willing to test the conditions, he said.

"Once that starts happening and once people see it happening, I think it will start accelerating fairly quickly," he said, stressing that the process must be carefully managed and supported by a diplomatic ceasefire agreement.

Looking at the broader picture, Meade said the situation reflects a deeper shift in global trade dynamics.

"What we are witnessing here is trade being divided down geopolitical lines," he said, noting that the ability of vessels to transit key waterways is increasingly shaped by their geopolitical affiliations.